CCRO Scenario Workshops

Overview

The current level of uncertainty in the US energy industry is unlike anything since the 1970s. As the energy transition proceeds, even as we face uncertain energy policy, the industry anticipates commodity price volatility, shocks to demand and supply, mounting challenges to reliability and affordability, extreme weather events, and potential geopolitical crises. These factors may lead to future market conditions entirely unlike any that historical data analyses might capture.

Scenario analysis is a vital tool that can enable organizations to explore future risks without relying on rich historical data as a basis for analysis. However, for scenarios to be actionable, they must be robust and plausible. Well-developed scenarios are essential for broadening our understanding of possible future outcomes and identifying potential risk mitigation alternatives. Best practice scenarios are especially important in multi-stakeholder environments, as they foster a shared understanding and common vocabulary for discussing potential futures.

Our scenario development workshop is a collaborative, interactive session designed to explore and prepare for potential future scenarios that could impact the energy industry and each of our organizations.

We are planning three phases for these workshops. Phase 1 addresses scenario development best practices. Phase 2 will address scenario modeling practices and explore tools available for modeling today. Phase 3 will apply this methodology, tools, and data to understand the energy transition’s potential impacts on your company.

Phase 1 Workshop Objective

We want to engage multiple perspectives while we develop a deeper understanding of the potential uncertainties and their fundamental drivers, and explore a range of potential futures. By exploring different potential futures, the workshop aims to enhance the risk officer’s role in strategic decision-making and improve organizational resilience to uncertainties.

Phase 1 Workshop Deliverables

The workshop produces a set of fundamentally different, and yet plausible scenarios that illustrate different possible futures. Scenarios are built from coherent and meaningful combinations of drivers and are translated into provocative but plausible narratives. They enable a group of diverse participants to create a shared language and understanding of the future. Participants in this workshop will leave with the following benefits:

• Engage with a diverse group of industry executives in a discussion of the future of the US energy industry and the energy transition

• Build a full understanding of the process and methodology for scenario analysis that could be applied in their own organizations

• Develop a set of currently relevant and fully developed scenarios to use and to demonstrate the value of scenario analysis to their own organizations

• Collaborate with the CCRO and its membership to expand our capacity to develop and model scenarios, including utilizing 3rd party scenarios

Who Should Participate?

We are looking for diverse participation across CCRO membership as well as invited guests. Depending on the number and sector focus of the participants (e.g. power, oil & gas, LNG), we will be flexible and adapt workshop design to make the workshop as valuable as possible to participants. Diverse representation ensures a broad range of perspectives and expertise, which enriches the scenario-building process.

Workshop Leaders

In response to feedback and guidance from the membership, the CCRO is planning a series of workshops dedicated to advancing best practices in scenario analysis for risk management.

Our first workshop will be in March 18 and 19th of 2025 in the Houston area

Let us know about your interest in attending by completing this form…

“The workshop aims to enhance the risk officer’s role in strategic decision-making and improve organizational resilience to uncertainties”

• PHASE 1, March 18 & 19: Scenario Development Framework and Best Practices

• PHASE 2: Determining the Quantitative Implications of Scenarios Developed

• PHASE 3: Assessing the energy transition’s potential impact on your company’s risk profile